The Two Leading Coalitions Take Shape in the Brazilian Electoral Race
15 de Abril de 2022
Washington Brazil Office
Brazilian Electoral Bulletin
por: Paulo Abrão e Andre Pagliarini
The 2022 campaign is shaping up to be the most contentious
of Brazil’s recent democratic history. Some in the Workers’
Party (PT) are worried the heated environment could lead to
actual violence, especially against former president Lula. Last
month, as reported in The Intercept, Lula’s itinerary during a
trip to Paraná somehow ended up being shared in the
WhatsApp groups of Bolsonaro supporters. The only people
privy to Lula’s schedule in the southern state were the
organizers of the visit and the state security forces. The
country is not yet in the full maelstrom of presidential
campaigning, but the fact that this delicate information leaked
is genuinely alarming.
Meanwhile, Lula continues to signal very publicly that he
intends to put together a broad coalition of support from the
center-right to the radical left. Last Friday, Lula formally
sealed his electoral compact with former São Paulo governor
Geraldo Alckmin, now a member of the center-left Brazilian
Socialist Party (PSB) after a long career in the center-right
Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB). With Alckmin as
his running mate, Lula is signaling to conservative voters and
the business community that he will govern as a pragmatist.
Some have raised doubts about whether such a gesture was
really needed. After all, Lula governed for eight years as a
moderate progressive who oversaw a process of modest
income redistribution while hardly upsetting the economic
interests of Brazilian elites. It is worth noting that traditional
politicians themselves don’t seem to need reassurances of
Lula’s basic moderation. In fact, at a dinner this week with
senior members of the center-right Brazilian Democratic
Movement (MDB), Lula by all accounts presented a compelling
case for why the party should support Lula in the first round
rather than launch a candidate of their own. It is a foregone
conclusion that the centrist Social Democratic Party (PSD) will
endorse Lula in the run-off. The notion that Lula is a
dangerous radical, however, persist among some sectors.
Bolsonaro is sure to inflame such baseless notions as the
campaign goes on.
As he sets the stage for his reelection campaign, Bolsonaro
has all but confirmed that General Walter Souza Braga Netto,
Minister of Defense and Chief of Staff of the Presidency, will
be his running mate this time, replacing current vice president
Hamilton Mourão. Mourão, who will run for senate in Rio
Grande do Sul, had seen his relationship with Bolsonaro
gradually sour during their time in office. Most recently,
Bolsonaro became angry when Mourão, a retired General,
expressed support for Ukraine against Russia. Braga Netto is
seen as much closer to Bolsonaro personally, a loyal enforcer
unlikely to publicly contradict or constrain the president.
Braga Netto’s selection also indicates Bolsonaro’s intent to
continue cultivating close ties with the armed forces this year,
deepening a politicization of the military that critics have long
decried as inappropriate and potentially dangerous. Bolsonaro
has come close to admitting that he will not recognize
electoral defeat. Keeping the military close, he seems to have
reasoned, could pay political dividends.